A new Yale analysis estimates that a Medicare-for-All-style universal health care system could reduce U.S. health spending by about $1.04 trillion a year, or nearly 20% of current national health expenditures. The researchers also projected that universal coverage could prevent about 114,000 deaths annually.
The analysis modeled a single-payer system similar to the Medicare for All Act using recent U.S. health care data. Researchers identified lower prescription-drug prices, Medicare-level payments to providers, reduced administrative costs, less fraudulent billing and fewer avoidable emergency and hospital visits as major sources of potential savings.
The projected savings would come despite an estimated $304 billion in additional annual spending to cover unmet medical needs, reimburse currently unpaid care and provide universal dental coverage. Under more conservative assumptions, the researchers still estimated savings of at least $663 billion a year.
The findings have drawn attention from lawmakers, including Rep. Ro Khanna, who cited the analysis in an August 2026 post supporting Medicare for All. However, the research is a preprint and has not yet been peer-reviewed, meaning its estimates should be viewed as projections rather than established evidence.
